Executive Summary
On June 12, 2010 captured Sub-Saharan fighters say morale is low with many desertions; U.S. officials say momentum is growing for pro-democracy forces; that Gaddafi will run out of fuel by summer’s end, and that he must go; France seeking ways to end the conflict with ceasefire prerequisite for negotiations; NTC Oil and Finance Minister visited Nafusa Mountains region, bringing aid; NTC calls repeatedly on Western countries to unfreeze Libyan assets and send economic aid; pro-democracy forces announce unified command structure under Minister of Defense, Jalal al-Digheily; Human Rights watch states that pro-democracy forces should protect civilians and civilian property; Switzerland sends special envoy to Benghazi to open a liaison office, and states that NTC is “sole legitimate partner for contact; ” Free Generation Movement states that 70% of shops are closed, and prices have increased five-fold in Tripoli, with continued arrests and forced disappearances; resulting in mini-exodus leaving Tripoli; reports of torture and rape in Abu Salim prison; UNICEF states that two million children are at physical and emotional risk from conflict; and delegation of European lawmakers travels to Tunisia to assess the humanitarian situation for refugees fleeing the conflict in Libya; and BBC team in Tripoli had TV equipment used for live two-ways 'removed' while team was sleeping; and states that BBC website has been blocked from Rixos Hotel.
Significant opportunities remain for international policymakers to positively impact the situation in Libya, such as by:
•Recognizing the National Transitional Council as the sole, legitimate representative of the Libyan people until Libyan civilians can hold democratic elections
•Unfreezing of Gaddafi regime assets as a means of facilitating humanitarian relief efforts in Libya to protect civilians from starvation and to facilitate peace and stability in liberated areas
•Formulating clear and consistent consensus of how to achieve ultimate goal of removing Gaddafi from power, marshaling all resources necessary to execute consensus vision, and ensuring that the country is able to smoothly transition into its pre-democracy phase
•Providing more humanitarian aid to the Libyan people in Western besieged cities, Misrata, Nafusa mountain region, and Zintan, as well as to refugees at the border
•Providing pro-democracy fighters with weapons as a means of self-defense and participation in their struggle for freedom
•Protecting natural resources, such as natural water reserves and oil fields, along with natural heritage sites and ancient ruins, which have been threatened by Gaddafi forces
•Deploying fact-finding missions to Tripoli as a means of gaining access to prisons and facilities reported to house many kidnapped persons, including Ain-Zara and Abu Saleem prisons
•Preventing the creation of a power vacuum by promoting and facilitating the post-Gaddafi political transition process; investing in systems and structures that support post-conflict planning dialogue and programs that build leadership and management competencies
•Disabling Gaddafi’s capacity to circumvent UN Sanctions, particularly via the acquisition of oil through third parties and the repatriation and harboring of funds through key officials abroad
•Preventing foreign-national mercenaries from entering Libya and focusing on countries that continue to provide support to Gaddafi
•Widening NATO efforts to the full extent possible under UN Resolution 1973 to protect civilians and oust Gaddafi from power
•Reinstituting American participation and leadership in the NATO mission
LIBYA SITUATION REPORT – July 13, 2011
The following report provides information from sources on the ground in Libya (compiled through telephone conversations, news reports, Twitter, Facebook, and pro-democracy Libya websites) that will help policymakers respond quickly to developments in the country.
Military Developments: Gaddafi and Loyalists
Summary of News
•Free Generation Movement: Two female Katiba soldiers injured by two male Katiba soldiers in an episode of infighting in Gergarish, Tripoli. Vast increase in checkpoints on outskirts of Soug Al Jomaa, Fashloum, Araada, Dahmani, Ben Ashour, Furnag, Ein Zara. Continued defections from internal and external security in Tripoli (http://tiny.cc/mph2b)
•Naturalized Sub-Saharan fighters ordered by Gaddafi regime to shoot Libyans who retreat from the front line. Captured Gaddafi soldier says morale low and many desertions (http://tiny.cc/qvijb)
•U.S. Officials: Collection of indicators, including territory seized and looming fuel and money shortages, show first shift from stalemate to momentum for pro-democracy forces. French Foreign Minister: Gaddafi prepared to leave power (http://tiny.cc/duk7t)
•U.S. Intelligence: Gaddafi troops may run out of fuel by summer’s end. Senior European diplomat echoed American assertion that momentum is growing for pro-democracy forces. French Foreign Minister: Gaddafi “sending messengers everywhere — to Turkey, to New York, to Paris” — to explore ways to end the conflict. Gaddafi’s PM: ceasefire pre-requisite to negotiations (http://tiny.cc/1n5sg)
Policy Implications
•Pro-democracy fighters are attaining substantial gains in conflict as fuel shortages continue to pressure regime
•International sanctions, along with political, diplomatic, financial, and military pressure continue to be effective
•US intelligence, along with Senior US and European analysts indicate by end of summer, there may be a tipping point in favor of the pro-democracy forces
•Internal fighting within Gadaffi forces is increasing; order given to naturalized citizens to shoot Gaddafi soldiers who desert frontline indicates fear of Gaddafi loyalist desertion is high
•Gaddafi becoming more desperate to achieve political solution to conflict as pressure increases
Policy Recommendations
•Continue military, financial, and diplomatic pressure on Gadaffi regime by tightening sanctions
•Allow Libyan frozen assets to be funneled to NTC to enable them to continue functioning as requested by Ali Tarhuni, NTC Finance Minister
•The removal from power of Gadaffi, his sons, and his entourage should be deemed pre-requisites to any peace plan, as advocated by NTC, as a means of ensuring a legitimate democratic transition
•A ceasefire should not be accepted as a prerequisite for negotiations, as continued military and economic pressure on the Gaddafi regime are likely the only factors pushing them into negotiations in the first place; Gaddafi’s willingness to relinquish power likely to disappear if pressure drops
Military Developments: NTC and Pro-Democracy Fighters
Summary of News
•NTC Oil and Finance Minister visited Nafusa Mountains region, bringing aid and preparing for another major advance. Affirmed strategic importance of Rhebat air strip.Repeated calls from the NTC for Western countries to send economic aid, including frozen Libyan government funds (http://tiny.cc/ui8y9)
•Pro-democracy forces announced unified command structure for first time. Will now fall under command of Minister of Defense, Jalal al-Digheily (http://tiny.cc/u0xah)
•Human Rights Watch: pro-democracy forces should protect civilians and civilian property in areas they control. Military commander in Nafusa Mountains admitted that some abuses took place despite orders to the contrary. Claimed that perpetrators have been punished (http://tiny.cc/oz0nc)
Policy Implications
•Pro-democracy forces' volunteer army continues to make strides against Gadaffi regime
•Gheryan campaign remains vital in push for Tripoli as Gheryan controls main highway leading to capital; both the pro-democracy fighters and the Gadaffi regime are preparing for Gheryan confrontation
•Libya remains a united country as exemplified by the Ali Tarhouni visit to the Nafusa mountains to ensure all proper aid is being received and to assess the needs of the region
•Airstrip in Nafusa Mountains is facilitating communication and humanitarian aid delivery to the formerly besieged region
•Further education and training for civilian pro-democracy forces on international law, human rights, and Islamic law concerning armed combat, weaponry, and behavior for fighters needs to be prioritized
Policy Recommendations
•Funding provided by international NGOs and development organizations should provide democracy education and training as a means of preventing reprisals in the current conflict and during the transitional period in post-conflict Libya. Trainings should include Islamic education and should be designed in cooperation with local communities to ensure cultural relevancy
•Deployment of fact finding missions to ensure compliance with international, human rights, and Islamic law by both parties in conflict, but particularly pro-regime forces who continue to utilize brutal methods of warfare including rape and land mines
•Unfreezing of Libyan frozen funds as a means of ensuring humanitarian aid and medical supplies is available to Libyans in need in all parts of the country
Political Developments: Gaddafi and Loyalists
Summary of News
•US State Department: “a lot of folks” claiming to speak for Gaddafi in touch with various Western countries. “Messages are contradictory” and there is no clear communication that “Gaddafi is prepared to understand that its time for him to go" (http://tiny.cc/8ysn9)
Policy Implications
•Common denominator for various international spokesman is the illegitimacy of Gaddafi as the ruler of Libya
•Diplomatic pressure continues to increase on Gadaffi
•US holds fast to definition of victory in Libya as democratic Libya with the absence of Gadaffi and his son
Policy Recommendations
•Expulsion of Gaddafi regime diplomats from all international organizations due to current ICC arrest warrant for Muammar Gaddafi, his son, and senior regime member Abdulla Senussi
•Continued financial, military, and diplomatic pressure on Gadaffi regime
•Continued surveillance of borders to thwart oil deliveries to regime through third parties
Political Developments: NTC and Pro-Democracy Fighters
Summary of News
•Swiss to send special envoy to Benghazi to open a liaison office. Swiss Foreign Ministry: NTC is “sole legitimate partner for contact” (http://tiny.cc/pdezo)
Policy Implications
•International community continues to recognize NTC as only legitimate, temporary representative of Libyan people
Policy Recommendations
•Delegitimizing Gadaffi regime and recognizing NTC through by expelling Gadaffi representatives from international organizations and inviting NTC representatives to replace expelled Gadaffi loyalists
•Unfreezing of Libyan funds and facilitating quick delivery of funds to NTC as a means of ensuring stability in liberated areas, facilitating humanitarian aid, and increasing morale among pro-democracy forces, whilst increasing pressure on Gadaffi regime
Humanitarian Needs
Summary of News
•Free Generation Movement, Tripoli: 70% shops closed, prices have increased fivefold, university empty, wages unpaid, banks turning people away, lack of fuel, and mass arrests. Arbitrary arrests and enforced disappearances continue. Regime broadcasting on Libyan channel anyone involved in civil disobedience will be executed
•Free Generation Movement: Mini exodus from Tripoli as families leave the capital leaving behind the shabab (youth) in anticipation of a new phase. Many youth who are discovering themselves on wanted lists are also escaping the capital (http://tiny.cc/stn08)
•Reports of torture and rape in Abu Salim prison in Tripoli and indications of rape in city of Tripoli (http://tiny.cc/6irmn)
•Ground source: rapes are occurring in Tripoli
•Ground source: one female taken at checkpoint leaving Tripoli for having the Free Libya flag in her mobile phone
•UNICEF: 2 million children at physical and emotional risk as conflict drags on. Landmines and explosive remnants of war contaminate areas around Misrata, Ajdabiya and the Nafusa Mountains. Many in urgent need of psycho-social support (http://tiny.cc/3h7ui)
•Delegation of European lawmakers traveling to Tunisia to assess the humanitarian situation for refugees fleeing the conflict in Libya (http://tiny.cc/21ec4)
Policy Implications
•Tripoli is tense and almost at a tipping point despite the false sense of calm presented by the regimes PR machine
•The halting of normal life as shops and schools close, combined with the petrol shortage, is increasing pressure inside the capital
•Regime continues to use enforced disappearance and "hit lists" as a means of maintaining control in the capital
•Increased security combined with increased exodus from the capital is indicative of wide anticipation of an approaching “tipping point” in Libya
Policy Recommendations
•Condemn in the strongest language the policy of enforced imprisonment, torture, and killings utilized by regime as a means of controlling the population
•Deployment of fact finding missions (both Arab and international e.g. Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International) to Tripoli prisons of Abu Salim and Ain Zara, the two prisons where most reports of torture come from. Insistence that fact finding missions be unaccompanied by government officials; deployment of fact finding mission to Azzawiya and Azzawiya prisons
•Strong surveillance of Gheryan by international community to ensure that human rights abuses do not take place
•Disabling government TV channels, which regularly incite violence; protection of civilians engaged in acts of civil disobedience who have been threatened and targeted by regime propaganda on TV
Communications Developments
Summary of News
•Jonny Hallam Jonny Hallam (BBC reporter): BBC team in Tripoli has had TV equipment used for live two-ways 'removed' while team was sleeping. BBC website has been blocked on Rixos Hotel internet but BBC World News available on TV
Policy Implications
•Libyan government continues to communicate false information
•Despite invitation for international journalists to come to Tripoli, journalist work continues to be observed, censored, and stolen in Gaddafi-controlled areas
•Any anti-Gaddafi reporting strongly censored by regime; expulsion of “guilty” journalists common; regime attempts to coerce journalists into changing stories and denying sources as evidenced (most recently) by expulsion of Guardian reporter
Policy Recommendations
•Any Gaddafi regime press conferences should be viewed with great skepticism and any information from regime officials needs to be confirmed prior to being accepted as fact by mainstream media
•Public condemnation in the strongest language of Gaddafi government’s treatment of international journalists; warnings against censorship made by journalist unions and associations
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